Tamerlan Tsarnaev – old school Russian counter intelligence

May 7, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Remember when Tamerlan’s mother, Zubeidat Tsarnaev, was interviewed on the major Russian TV channel NTV? There was absolutely no substance to the interview. She claimed rather rediculously that the entire thing was a setup and her boys were framed. She appeared comical at times.

What do we learn here? It shows the Russians are very good at counter intelligence. As a former CI officer I should know.

When analyzing broadcasts from nations like Russia it’s important to consider what the state typically allows from it’s media outlets. There are strict laws that forbid promoting terrorism. Allowing this woman to give this interview is in a sense State Sponsored. So the real question that no one is asking here is “Why did the Russian government allow this interview to occur?” Why did they allow this woman to publicize a terrorist act? This is not typical Russian behavior. Typically the families of suspected terrorists are bagged, tagged, and brought in for interrogation. If this was a typical situation we never would have heard from Mrs Tsarnaev. Her affiliation with a known terrorist makes her guilty until proven innocent.

This set off a series of leaked information from Russian security services. The Novaya Gazeta reported a “source” within Russian security services that claimed Russia had placed Tamerlan on a watch list for his repeated meetings with a known radical, Mahmud Mansur Nidal. If this is true, why wasn’t Tamerlan questioned?
Again, the Novaya Gazeta reported that Tsarnaev was under surveillance by Russian Security Services when a captured radical named William Plotnikov gave up Tamerlan’s name as an accomplice while under interrogation. I ask again, why wasn’t Tamerlan Tsarnaev questioned, detained, interrogated by the Russians? He went into Dagestan, Russia, then back to the U.S. and ,while apparently under surveillance, was allowed to depart the country unimpeded.

The probable answer is that the Russian government looked into Tsarnaev but never found anything suspicious. He was reportedly angered over the U.S. involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan. This shows his relative lack of interest in Chechen or Dagestani affairs. Why didn’t he ever voice displeasure with Russia’s treatment of the Chechens? It’s most probably due to the fact that he was radicalized in the U.S. and didn’t really care about what was going on back in a country he had little connection to anymore.
Russia saw an opportunity to throw it back in the face of the United States. We don’t support Russia in the Caucasus. When Putin asks for help combating terrorists in Chechnia and Dagestan the U.S. turns a cold shoulder. The U.S. wants more states to secede from Russia. This Russian media campaign is nothing more than a big slap in the face. It doesn’t explain where the Tsarnaev brothers were radicalized. It’s disinformation designed to weaken United States foreign policy.

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Syria: Rebels capture police compound in Aleppo

May 6, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Much of the western media reported gains by al Assad last week. They missed some significant gains by the Free Syria Army.

A source in Syria has reported that a major police compound in Aleppo was secured by the FSA. After fierce fighting and over 200 casualties the rebels gained control.
Also, in northern Raqqa province, another police ran structure rumored to be a state prison was secured by the FSA.

Syria is learning first hand the difficulty in fighting against a guerrilla force. As the al Assad forces hit traditional targets the FSA maneuvers around and attacks unconventionally. Remember that the FSA is not fighting a conventional war. There are no real battle lines. This will be a long dawn out conflict where the FSA attempts to break the will of the Assad forces with mass casualties on multiple fronts.

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Moscow: Opposition Rally

May 6, 2013 By 1 Comment

May 6th – Sources report that near 20,000 people attended a rally for the opposition. This marks the one year anniversary of a similar rally that ended with Russian police arresting people in mass. A prominent opposition leader is expected to take the mic soon.
Last years protest was conducted a day before President Putin’s inauguration.

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Israel Steps up attacks on Syria

May 6, 2013 By Leave a Comment

Israel apparently saw one of it’s “red lines” crossed over the past few days. Israeli jets have officially targeted a supposed weapons transfer on it’s way from Assad to Hezbollah militants in Lebanon. Sources within Damascus also report that a few minor skirmishes occurred around Damascus at the same time. Possibly all part of the same coordinated attack.

This doesn’t surprise me at all. Israel leads the way in proactive protection of their country and it’s citizens. I commend them for this but it definitely escalates the situation to say the least.

Egypt and the Arab league were quick to condemn the attacks. The Arab League called on the U.N. Security Council to step in and put a stop to it. They claimed Israel had “violated an Arab states national sovereignty”.
This statement illustrates the difficult situation Israel and the U.S are in. Any direct involvement draws a statement like this. It’s used as a rallying cry in an attempt to unite the entire Arab World against Them. People don’t see and the media doesn’t cover what’s going on behind the scenes.

The Arab League wants the Syrian government to fall just as much as Israel and the U.S. They fund, radicalize, and clandestinely support jihadi groups fighting al Assad. The Islamic world is directly responsible for the success of the Free Syria Army. They’ll even accept Israeli/U.S. intelligence and money. The U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry just pledged near 60 million in food and medical supplies directly to the FSA.
Egypt, The Arab League, Saudi Arabia…..they’re all interested in one thing: sunni domination of the Middle East and Northern Africa. The United States and Israel are necessary evils that they have to endure….for now. As long as Israel and the U.S. don’t do anything too overt they’ll be allowed a piece of the pie.

Back to Israel’s recent attack. The goal is to keep the fighting between the al Assad forces and the FSA. The FSA will find it hard to fight on 2 different fronts. If they have to fight Hezbollah coming from the Lebanese border it’ll get complicated. Israel’s attack on Hezbollah is liken to an indirect shot at Iran. Watch what happens on May 9th and 10th. Hezbollah chief Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah will give a speech concerning Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian civil war. This will come directly after a meeting with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Will this be when Iran responds publicly to Israel’s overt attack?

My prediction is that U.S. Secretary of State Kerry is frantically on the phone with Israel right now urging them to restraint. The U.S. has had a history in funding and supplying Islamic militant groups in the past with great success. They’re banking on that. As long as Assad falls Iranian influence will be severely crippled. A Muslim Brotherhood government is waiting in the wings to take over. They have a deep relationship with the United States and I’m sure Kerry is conveying that if they allow things to progress they’ll make sure the MB stays out of Israel’s way.
Likewise, I expect no overt action from the United States. They’ll stay in the background and continue to covertly support Islamic militant groups. With Saudi jihadi fighters and Muslim Brotherhood led governments Iran will soon be backed into a corner. Iran will soon abandon Syria and look to re focus elsewhere. Iraq is the most probable location. This militant threat will spill over from Syria to Lebanon and Iraq. Syria is just the staging point.

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Understanding North Korean Aggression

March 13, 2013 By Leave a Comment

The media has been really hyping up North Korean aggression lately. Why the world is so intent on giving the N. Koreans air time is so beyond me. You would think that this kind of behavior from them is a new development.

The media would have you think that war is most definitely near. What’s wrong with that thinking? That’s exactly what North Korea wants you to think. They want constituents scared and politicians nervous. North Korea has no intention of invading the South and even less to fire off a pre-emptive nuclear weapon. It’s all a game to force negotiations, gather support, and create panic. Fear leads to negotiation and that’s the name of the game in Pyongyang.

Nuclear Programs – Not what they used to be

Let’s get something straight right now. An active nuclear program isn’t used today for what it was in the past. After WW2 the countries seeking nuclear weapons were doing so to guarantee survival. A nuclear bomb was the ultimate first strike weapon. Fear began an arms race that turned into a war of its own…the Cold War. Today, the thought of using nuclear weapons (biological and chemical as well) is so taboo that it serves as a worldwide rallying call to rise up against those making the threat. Want to fight the entire world? Use a nuclear, chemical, or biological weapon. Sure they’ll inflict casualties, but they’ll be wiped off the face of the earth within a week. That’s why Syria’s Bashar al-Assad didn’t chem his own people. He didn’t need the world united in support of the Syrian opposition.

Here is what an active nuclear program does today (for rogue nations like Korea and Iran):

  1. Diversion – An active nuclear program gathers so much attention that it’ll divert eyes from something else. An example of this is when Iran wants to mask their intentions and actions in Syria. They’ll kick up rhetoric on their nuclear program. All attention focuses away.
  2. Negotiation – The threat of a nuclear weapon demands dialogue. In North Korea’s case the outside world has them in isolation. N. Korea is still in a state of war and under heavy world sanction. To improve their situation they absolutely must get people talking without looking weak. Their nuclear program does this.

Look at rogue state nuclear programs as a foreign policy tactic. Not as intent for a first strike weapon.

History repeats itself…

In 1953 the Armistice ended the Korean War. Make note that North Korea is still considered to be “at war”. The Armistice halted military action and formed the DMZ. That’s basically it. A peaceful solution to formally end the war was to be figured out later….but it never did.

From the 60’s to the 80’s North Korea saw rapid industrial growth. Things were looking up. During the 1970’s the North began to develop nuclear technology. The world wasn’t blind to this and in 1992 the UN demanded their inspectors have access to determine if North Korea had an active nuclear weapons program. The North was incredibly belligerent during this and refused access to several sites.

In 1994 tragedy hits North Korea but that tragedy would lead to a revelation that would shape their foreign policy from then until present day. President Kim Il-Sung would die and his son Kim Jong-Il would take control. Kim Jong-Il knew his country needed a boost and decided to leverage their nuclear program to gain ground. He offered to freeze their nuclear program in exchange for free fuel and a couple nuclear reactors. He must have been surprised when the United States took the bait.

From 1994 until present day it’s almost comical. Every time disaster strikes North Korea or they need a boost they’ll threaten aggression or ramp up their nuclear program rhetoric. Take a look at this timeline and check out North Korea’s actions:

1996 – North Korea is brought to its knees by horrible famine. Severe floods ravage the country.

Reaction: North Korea (like it did this month!) announces that it will no longer abide by the Armistice and sends troops into the DMZ.

Intent: They needed help. Isolation was killing them. Dialogue opens up and the UN agrees to send food aid to help the famine victims. The DMZ troops withdraw.

1998 – North Korea launches a rocket that flies over Japan. They claim they were attempting to launch a satellite.

Intent: Again, they were hit unexpectedly hard in the famine and ensuing floods. It is agreed during negotiations that the UN will send in more food aid.

2001 – North Korea faces one of the biggest droughts in their history.

2002 – President Bush claims North Korea as part of the “Axis of Evil”.

Reaction: North Korea engages South Korean naval vessels at sea. 30-40 are reported dead.

Intent: North Korea saw a trigger happy United States that was willing to invade a country (Iraq) on the threat of NBC weapons. Realizing nuclear rhetoric would be too much they instead opt for a minor sea battle. The result: The Japanese send their Prime Minister to talk to Kim Jong-Il. (remember – the goal is to end the isolation and get people to talk)

2003 – North Korea lifts the veil on their secret nuclear weapons program. They then withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Intent: North Korea couldn’t afford to be labeled as an “Evil Nation”. They certainly couldn’t appear weak with the United States just looking for a reason to invade. This started a worldwide panic and negotiation talks were immediately set up in Beijing. This lasted though out 2004 until it was obvious that neither Washington nor Pyongyang were willing to give ground. Pyongyang leaves the table.

2005 – Sanctions continue to wreak havoc on the North Korean economy.

Reaction: North Korea offers to give up weapons in return for UN aid. They would later ask for another nuclear reactor.

2006 – Sanctions take more of an economic toll.

Reaction: Pyongyang test fires a long range missile. They would later claim to have tested their first nuclear weapon.

Intent: North Korea needed economic help. Due to these extreme developments the world was forced to open dialogue. At the end of the talks North Korea agreed to shut down their main nuclear reactor in exchange for fuel.

I could go on and on and bring this timeline up to date but it would look ridiculously repetitive. It’s the same thing year after year.

Conclusion

Don’t read too much into the North’s recent saber rattling. Always try and figure out “the why” when these things happen throughout the world. If countries like Iran or North Korea make an outrageous move look at what’s going on behind the scenes or in another direction. Figure out “the why”.

North Korea has been eroding from inside since the 1960’s. You have to give them credit though. They’ve been very effective in the use of aggression and their nuclear program in an attempt to improve their situation.

 North Korea is playing a dangerous game. Someday they may push too hard and someone will get sick of it. Until then, the world needs to continue to bleed them economically. Don’t over react to their aggression like we have in the past. It’s all a ploy. The world’s policy needs to be to isolate them more every time they try these same old boring tactics. No concessions and no compromise outside of all out compliance. Anything more enables other countries such as Iran who have learned much from their North Korean mentors.

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Euro-Asian Continental Union

March 11, 2013 By 3 Comments

Former Russian General Leonid Ivashov told Pravda recently that tactical nuclear weapons “should constantly be aimed at the United States.” In my opinion this was no revolution into the psyche of Putin’s government. Of course this line got all the western media outlets buzzing.
My attention, however, was centered on another quote from Ivashov in this interview. Ivashov called for the UN Security council to be expanded to counter the United States. He then went on to say what I think is the focus and legacy of Vladimir Putin’s Presidency/Dictatorship, “The next step is to develop the Euro-Asian continental union, which includes Russia, China, India, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Mongolia within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.”

Analysis
Ever since the fall of the Soviet Union Russia has been trying to re-establish herself. Beginning in 1999 the Russian economy would boom solidly for 8 straight years. Most of this boom due in large part from a significant rise in oil prices which is Russia’s primary export.
While Russia quietly regrouped she had to look on as the European Union formed and the United States continued to progress militarily, economically, and in influence around the world.
In 2007 Russia made it clear to the world that their rebuilding phase was over and that they were now capable of influence beyond their own borders. On February 10th 2007 Putin gave his famous Munich Speech while attending the Munich Conference on Security Policy. It was seen as the turning point on Russian foreign policy and a return to Soviet style thinking/aggression.
During the speech Putin went on the offensive heavily critisizing the US and NATO. It was a clear line in the sand and an establishment of “us against them”. Former NATO secretary Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said the speech was “disappointing and not helpful.”

Speech highlights:
- Putin called to uphold the principle “security for everyone is security for all”.
- Criticized the policies of the United States and NATO.
- Condemned the unipolar model of international relations as flawed and lacking moral basis.
- Condemned the hypocrisy of countries trying to teach democracy to Russia.
- Condemned the domination of hard power and enforcement by the U.S. of the Western norms and laws to other countries bypassing the international law and substituting the United Nations by NATO or the EU.
- Called to stop the militarization of space and questioned the plans to deploy American missile defense in Europe as threatening strategic nuclear balance and spurring a new arms race.

(Watch the speech) http://m.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL73F4FF7DE37F4137

In a decade when we look back at the beginning of Vladimir Putin’s legacy we might start at this February 2007 speech. Eastern Europe and Asia might very well look a whole lot different. A new mega alliance to counter the EU, NATO, and the US. Russia at the head of the new Euro-Asian Continental Union.

Putin and the new Euro-Asian Union

Let’s call a spade a spade. Vladimir Putin is a dictator. Putin and his United Russia Party have effectively been in control  of the country since 1999. Who tries to maintain power for over 14 years if not a dictator? Putin has a plan to….and I’ll quote an American polititian…”fundamentally change” the balance of power in the world.

In 1994 at a speech at Moscow University the President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, outlined an idea of his for a Eurasian Union. In a nut shell it was a political and economic union of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and other post-Soviet states. The idea was based upon the integration of the European Union and a direct counter to NATO, the US, and the EU itself.
The main problem of this idea was that no one was strong enough at the time to implement it. On top of that, a drunk was the head of the Russian state. However, Putin became Prime Minister in 1999 and began to act upon the Kazakhstan President’s idea.

Putin’s plan:

(Phase one is mostly complete)
1. Strengthen the Russian state – after the Soviet fall Russia has been trying to re-establish. Economically they’re there. Socially…still getting there. The problem with tightening your grip is that people, groups, and ideas slip through your fingers. The Russian middle class is gaining strength and influence and they’re sick of the corruption. Look for Putin and United Russia to continue to rig elections, arrest protester’s, and counter with tactics that attempt to bolster nationalism. Ironically, Putin is using the Orthodox Church to rally support. Something he was against during his KGB days.

(Phase two under way)
2. Re-establish Soviet era borders - Soviet era borders served as an effective buffer from outside hostile threats. Countries such as Ukraine, Georgia, Latvia, Romania, Uzbekistan, etc are crucial for shielding mother Russia from foreign invasion. We’re already seeing Russia using it’s exclusive oil and gas supply to these countries to leverage control/influence.

(Phase three framework established)
3. Bolster relationship with Iran - This step is a tricky one and a major focus (under the radar) with most of the world. Russia is heavily invested with this budding relationship with strategic implications both current and long term. Currently Russia needs to support Iranian backed Syria. This both strengthens Russian/Iranian ties and it guarantees the Russian naval base in Tartus.
(Map) http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Detailkarte_der_Marinebasis_Tartus.svg
Without this base Russian warships in that AOR would need to go all the way back through the Turkish straits to the black sea in order to re-supply and maintenance. In the long term Russia see’s Iran as the dominate force in the middle east. Iran is a future nuclear power and is a direct enemy of the US. They oppose the US allies in the region of Israel and Saudi Arabia. It’s an obvious ally.

(Phase four in the next 5 years)
4. Strengthen ties with India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, China - This is the last step and probably the more difficult one to pull off. Pakistan and Afghanistan could be done but India would have to be hard pressed to ally along side Pakistan. Look for Russia to sign significant oil and gas deals in the next 5 years to gain leverage over India. China will be another tough sell. China is a potential rival in the region and the two countries don’t all together trust each other. Look for Russia to support China’s sovereign territorial claims in the South and East China Sea. They’ll publicly put themselves at odds with Japan and in extension the US. Common enemies make common allies.

Thus outlines Putin’s plan and his legacy to Russia. He likely won’t relinquish power until after phase 4 is well under way. Even then he’ll hand over power (on his death bed) to another hand picked United Russia candidate.

Counters
As a former Intelligence officer I see multiple ways to attack this. It’s imperative that we encourage nations to not be dependant on Russian oil and gas. Russia uses their energy dominance like figurative nuclear warheads. Rather than threaten their neighbors with military action they can instead starve them of energy. We need to continue to strengthen Israel and maintain close ties with Saudi Arabia. These direct counters to Iran are imperative to keep them choked off. We also need to ensure the Alawite regime in Syria falls and a new non Alawite government moves in. Lebanon would fall next leaving Russia with Iran as their sole middle east ally. Iran would be on an Island in a sense and forced to start over.

We need to strengthen Japan and encourage them to amend their constitution to allow them to build their military. This will be a direct counter to China and one that we won’t have to fight solely. Japan needs to become more of an Asian threat. We need to encourage Chinese/Russian competition to keep their suspicions active and their economic/military cooperation at a minimum.

Conclusion
A speech from the President of Kazakhstan in 1994 planted the seed in a young Vladimir Putin. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization laid the framework.
(Read about the SCO) http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation
The Euro-Asian Continental Union is a real threat. It will take clever posturing and foreign relations by the west to head it off.

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Syria’s holiday cease fire? riiiiight

October 24, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Why would the secular Alawite Syrian government want a cease fire to celebrate Ramadan? The Baath Part and al-Assad could care less if it was Ramadan or the Chinese New Year. The primarily Suuni Free Syrian Army knows this better than anyone. That and only that is why you won’t see the cease fire happen.

This is a ploy by Assad to get the FSA to back off for a bit. He’ll continue to mass forces and get resupplied by Iran and Russia. When the FSA realizes it they’ll attack his massing forces breaking the cease fire. It’s a good move by Assad…but it’ll never happen. The FSA isn’t that dumb.

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